As suggested in our pre-election “what if” commentary, a split government is a net positive for the stock market. It appears that the election of the Bidan/Harris ticket was more of a repudiation of extreme behavior on the part of Donald Trump than an endorsement of a strong shift to the left in […]
The World Will (...) End with the Next Election (NOT) As we approach the November 3 election, I thought it might be useful to submit my thoughts on how different outcomes may affect the financial markets. These are the thoughts of someone with 46 years active involvement in financial markets: Markets have an uncanny way of “knowing” what the outcome will be, but this election is scrambled eggs so it’s hard to believe markets know what is coming. Let’s consider some possibilities:
Below is a graphic borrowed from the Wall Street Journal online, tracking equity performance both here and abroad for the year to date, as of September 30, 2020:
As this quarter wound down, unemployment is above 8 percent, the federal […]
I thought it might be helpful to drop a note to you. The company announced it was “splitting” its shares and issuing three new shares to common shareholders of record, while adjusting the price accordingly. This took place on August 31, 2020.
“Biology will drive the economy”. – Michelle Seitz, Russell Investments appearing on Bloomberg’s “Wall Street Week”
Equity markets continued a remarkable recovery that began in the last week of March right through this June quarter. The Standard & Poors 500 is now just 8% off last year’s December 31 close. […]
Beyond the challenges to slowing the progression of Covid-19 and the heroic battle being fought by our medical professionals, the economic uncertainty caused by extreme distancing measures have made society impatient for a resolution.
Business owners, out-of-work hair stylists, waitresses, Uber drivers (and politicians) are anxious for the crisis to […]
"Trust in God, but tie up your camel" attributed to the Muslim prophet Muhammed
"Though April showers come your way, they bring the flowers that bloom in May" as sung by Al Jolson in 1921
Suppose I told you about an investment that could lose you money but has a 97% likelihood of being profitable? Would you consider this an investment with good odds of success? According to most health experts who have been observing the progress of the Corona virus (AKA “Covid 19”), only 3% of those who contract the virus die. Looked at another way, 97% of those who contract it survive. For the 8 out of 10 who become infected, the course of the illness, for people in good health, is relatively mild. While I have no desire to minimize this health challenge we face, I cannot but wonder at the extent of the equity market swoon it has prompted. The media, the markets and many in government, education and the entertainment world are reacting as if this were something out of one of those apocalypse movies. Are they overreacting? Let’s examine. READ MORE
It was all smiles for investors in 2019, but despite the good news, we did not detect from our clients the emotional tenor that accompanies an over-valued bull market that is nearing a top. Roaring back from a fast but frightening fourth-quarter 2018 correction, both stock and bond markets had one of their best years of the past decade. Driving the market were growth stocks, especially Apple. Other technology favorites like Microsoft, Amazon and Google also shined. Our favorite cell phone tower companies, American Tower and Crown Castle did... READ MORE
The IRA Bait and Switch by By The Editorial Board of the Wall Street Journal
The trouble for retirement accounts begins on page 643 of Congress’s behemoth spending bill, under the always ominous heading: “Title IV—Revenue Provisions.” That’s where lawmakers upended the meticulous […]
Report to clients for the quarter ending September 30, 2019
To date in 2019 equities have turned in their best performance for U.S. stock markets since 1997, quite an amazing result given a drumbeat of market-threatening news: tariff wars, major damage to Saudi oil production and likely impeachment hearings in the House of Representatives.