Current Commentary

The past three months saw a continuation of a tech stock driven market rally, and as non-tech stocks also began to rally, confirmed that a sustainable bull market is in motion. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is up 10.16% so far this year and up 29.71% over the past 12 months. U.S. interest rates, based on the 10 Year [...]

The major US and world stock indices had a volatile year in 2023, influenced by various factors such as the banking crisis, Federal Reserve Board policy, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. Here is a brief summary of their performance: The capitalization weighted S&P 500 gained 24.2%, driven primarily by a handful of technology companies that came to be known as the [...]

“…the Fed Board seems to be convinced that inflation must be stopped at all costs, so there is a good chance they will overshoot. Employment remains strong as does consumer spending. Resistance to inflationary price hikes appears to be absent. Therefore, I would not be surprised to see 10 Year T-bonds at 6%, even near 7% before the fever breaks.“ -Trusted Financial [...]

The Tech stock train leaves the station, or so it seems We missed much of the blistering tech stock rally seen in the first seven months of 2023. This is unsurprising as most clients want moderate growth without the terrifying volatility that technology and similar growth stocks generate. Coming off a tech stock bear market, I largely subscribed to the [...]

Quarter End Report June 30, 2023 As we entered the second quarter, investors were spooked by an ongoing rescue of smaller banks after suffering "runs."  Since one of these, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) held liquid assets for start-up technology companies as well as the financiers who invest in these ventures, the government decided that these were effectively, systemically important institutions. [...]

Mid Quarter Update As it has been a particularly worrisome time for financial markets, with a slow-moving banking crisis putting investors on edge, I felt a brief update to be appropriate. This Saturday will see two of the most respected investors in the world, whose combined ages total over 180 years, sit next to one another at CHI auditorium in [...]